Look on the Bright Side

As it gets harder and harder for me to watch the Braves, between the physical and mental errors, I thought maybe we could take a look at the one bright spot for this team: the starting pitching. We'll look at the year each pitcher is having as well as his contract status, then finish up with what all this means moving forward.

Derek Lowe

The Braves's so-called ace, he of the 36 years of age and 4 year, $60 million contract, has pitched pretty well overall this year. Through his first 13 starts, he was 7-3 with a solid 3.44 ERA. After getting roughed up in two of his June starts, his ERA jumped to 4.53 and his record fell to 7-6. For the year, most of his relevant statistics are up, though that seems to be a product of those two awful outings. Lowe is one of the hardest workers on the team and as consistent as they come, so I'm not worried about him this year. That big contract, though, signed probably out of panic after this past winter's Smoltz fiasco, is going to come back on the Braves eventually.

Jair Jurrjens

To say the Jurrjens has continued to progress after last year's solid performance would be an understatement. Though the walks are a little high (3.2/9), he has pitched out of his mind this year, sporting a 2.93 ERA and .227 BAA. Given any sort of run support, he would be heading for his first all-star game appearance in a couple of weeks. He is arbirtration eligible until 2013, meaning that he should be pitching for the good guys for years to come.

Javier Vazquez

The Braves got more than they bargained for when the acquired Vazquez this past winter. He leads the league in strikeouts per nine (10.5) and has an ERA almost as outstanding as Jurrjens's (3.05). His walk ratio of 1.9/9 is the best on the staff by a long shot. He also leads the staff in innings pitched at 106.2 and WHIP at 1.059. Simply put, Vazquez has dominated this year and would also be headed to the all-star game with a little run support. At $11.5 million this year and next, his contract is pretty good considering the production.

Kenshin Kawakami

Kawakami certainly gave Braves fans cause for concern early this year after signing a 3 year, $23 million contract. However, he has seemingly settled down, with very respectable, if not downright good, stats since May 5th. In 10 starts, he has posted a 3.18 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 1.245 WHIP, and a .239 BAA. His next start will be skipped to allow him a little more time to recover from the liner of his neck in his last start. Though it was a scary situation, this may actually help him by keeping his workload down a little. I honestly don't know if this recent performance is a sign of things to come or a lucky streak.

Tommy Hanson

After adrenaline got the best of him in his first start, Hanson settled down and has given Braves fan a glimpse of the talent that has had scouts everywhere raving. He has won every game since that first start while posting a .222 BAA and a 2.48 ERA. In his last two starts, he threw 11.1 scoreless innings against the juggernauts of the AL East, the Sox and the Yankees. He even walked only two hitters in his last start, down from the worrisome 5.3/9 he sports thus far. Besides the fastball clocked up to 95 mph and the nasty off speed stuff, I have been impressed with his poise and the confidence that he has showed against some formidable lineups. His performance has already given him a great shot at the Rookie of the Year. Every Braves fan with a pulse has to be excited to watch this kid for plenty years.

Kris Medlen

I am, admittedly, bitter about Medlen's move to the bullpen. After two rough appearances that saw Medlen give up 9 runs over 8.1 innings, he pitched beautifully in his last game: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K. His control was the major issue in those first two starts, but he found it in the last one, throwing 62.6% strikes. His minor league 2.0 BB/9 ratio indicates that the first two starts were probably the product of nerves more than anything. I understand that with the promotion of Hanson, there isn't any room in the rotation for Medlen, but moving him to the bullpen, where he made only 4 appearances in all of June, is not the solution for a young pitcher who has showed a lot of promise. He has to be sent down where he can continue to develop as a starter.

Jo-Jo Reyes

I've got to believe Braves fans have (thankfully) seen the last of Jo-Jo in Atlanta. In 5 starts this season, 19 runs for an ERA of 6.58. Some career numbers over three years with the Braves: 5-15, 6.09 ERA, 1.631 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9.

Tim Hudson

He hasn't pitched yet this year, but I included him because he is relevant to the discussion of the Braves's future. He'll be 33 next year, and he has a mutual option that stands to pay him $12 million next season. He should be back in August in time to make a few appearances.

So how will all of this play out this winter (or perhaps sooner)? Well, there are obviously a few guys that are here to stay. Jurrjens and Hanson should be front liners on this staff for a while. Lowe's contract and age make him all but untradeable. I think I'm OK with this. While I don't love the contract, he does give the Braves an ace with playoff experience and a great clubhouse guy. Plus, he will hopefully take the young guys under his wing. Kawakami is harder to gauge. If his recent performance is the pitcher the Braves signed, he may prove a steal at about $8 mil a year. However, if he is somewhere between how he started and how he has fared lately (which I think is about right), he will be difficult to move with that salary. Even if someone wanted him, I'm not sure it's worth giving up the international interest. Working under the assumption that the Braves will have Kawakami through the terms of his contract, that leaves four of the five starters' roles filled. With Hudson's return in August, the Braves have a big decision to make. Medlen is currently wasting away in the bullpen, while Vazquez has, as I said above, been outstanding this year. That's three pitchers for one spot. I have already made my opinion on this known, any one else have any thoughts?

The Sky is Falling

Hanson's line from his first major league start was not too impressive: 6 IP, 6 ER, 5 K, 3 HR. So maybe the Brewers aren't the Toledo Mud Hens. Don't depsair, though; there is a lot to like about Hanson's much antipated debut. First of all, the Brewers are one of the best power hitting clubs in the National League, ranking third in homers with 54 this year (compared to only 38 by the Braves). The homeruns didn't surprise me a ton, anyways. Power pitchers typically give up more homeruns than those that pitch with more finesse. Think Javy Vazquez here. Similiar pitching styles: both strike out a lot of guys, both throw hard, both are fly ball pitchers. In 2008, Vazquez had the 14th highest HR/9 among AL-qualifiers. So the kid is probably going to give up some long balls, but considering he allowed only 5 in 66 IP in Gwinnett, I wouldn't count on 3 per game from here on out.

What can we take awat from this game? Well, for most of us, it was the first time seeing Hanson pitch, and his stuff sure didn't disappoint. In fact, the kid was downright nasty at times, bringing a fastball that averaged about 93.5 mph but topped out at 97, a big, slow curveball that made a lot of professional hitters look bad, and a slider that comes in around the high 80's. He showed all of them off in the bottom of the second when he struck out the side on only 12 pitches. One thing I always like to see from a pitcher is throwing strikes, which Hanson did with 67% of his pitches, slightly better than the league average of 62%. However, Mark Bowman writes that most of those came against his first 9 batters faced, when the threw 24 out of 31 pitches for strikes. After those hitters, only 34 of his 60 pitches came in as strikes. So, I think we saw what the 22 year old is capable of when he retired the first 10 batters he faced, but also some of the inconsistency that is bound to plague any young pitcher, even phenoms. Any opinions on the kids performance?

The Braves Get More Cowbell

I was going to start off this post by mostly bitching about the Braves's handling of Tom Glavine. However, a few writers much better than myself already did a fine job: DOB and Buster Olney (Glavine part is free). The Bearded Icon himself even weighed in, with appropriate disapproval. So I'll move on to the other moves the Braves made yesterday.

Within just a few minutes of announcing Glavine's release, Tommy Hanson was called up. Everyone is probably already familiar with his stats in Gwinnett thus far, but here they are in case you've missed them: 11 starts, 1.50 ERA, 66.1 IP, 17 BB, 90 K, 0.864 WHIP. Whew. And if you can't do the math, those strikeouts work out to a ridiculous 12.3 K/9. Though the kid has always been a big prospect for the Braves, he really skyrocketed after his performance in the Arizona Fall league last year, which draws some of baseball's best prospects. The stats that led to his becoming the first pitcher to win the MVP in the fall league: 0.63 ERA, .105 BAA, and 49 K's in 28.2 IP (15.4 K/9). Bringing Hanson up moves Medlen to the bullpen. I'd like to see him stay a starter, but there's no where for him to go. Personally, I think the Braves should send him back to Gwinnett where he can pitch regularly. The bullpen could get a little crowded, with Soriano, Gonzalez, O'Flaherty, and Moylan better options late in the game.

As for the McLouth deal, I love it. Charlie Morton didn't show much when called up last year, though he was dominating in Gwinnett (who wasn't?). Gorkys Hernandez is a highly ranked prospect, but he is years from seeing the majors, and he isn't stealing as many bases as he did early in his career (54 in 2007, 20 in 2008, and 10 so far this year). The guys at FanGraphs say that McLouth is one of the most projectable players around: "a quality left-handed bat who draws some walks and has some power." They're not a big fan of his glove, saying he is a serviceable centerfielder, despite his 2008 Gold Glove. What this says to me is that Braves will move him over to left next year (or maybe right this year) when Schafer is ready to come back up. He does have a great contract, owed $15 million through 2011, with a club option for 2012. According to FanGraphs, he should be commanding upwards of $12 million. A pretty good deal, even if he does look like a young, blond Christopher Walken. I've got a fever!