Look on the Bright Side

As it gets harder and harder for me to watch the Braves, between the physical and mental errors, I thought maybe we could take a look at the one bright spot for this team: the starting pitching. We'll look at the year each pitcher is having as well as his contract status, then finish up with what all this means moving forward.

Derek Lowe

The Braves's so-called ace, he of the 36 years of age and 4 year, $60 million contract, has pitched pretty well overall this year. Through his first 13 starts, he was 7-3 with a solid 3.44 ERA. After getting roughed up in two of his June starts, his ERA jumped to 4.53 and his record fell to 7-6. For the year, most of his relevant statistics are up, though that seems to be a product of those two awful outings. Lowe is one of the hardest workers on the team and as consistent as they come, so I'm not worried about him this year. That big contract, though, signed probably out of panic after this past winter's Smoltz fiasco, is going to come back on the Braves eventually.

Jair Jurrjens

To say the Jurrjens has continued to progress after last year's solid performance would be an understatement. Though the walks are a little high (3.2/9), he has pitched out of his mind this year, sporting a 2.93 ERA and .227 BAA. Given any sort of run support, he would be heading for his first all-star game appearance in a couple of weeks. He is arbirtration eligible until 2013, meaning that he should be pitching for the good guys for years to come.

Javier Vazquez

The Braves got more than they bargained for when the acquired Vazquez this past winter. He leads the league in strikeouts per nine (10.5) and has an ERA almost as outstanding as Jurrjens's (3.05). His walk ratio of 1.9/9 is the best on the staff by a long shot. He also leads the staff in innings pitched at 106.2 and WHIP at 1.059. Simply put, Vazquez has dominated this year and would also be headed to the all-star game with a little run support. At $11.5 million this year and next, his contract is pretty good considering the production.

Kenshin Kawakami

Kawakami certainly gave Braves fans cause for concern early this year after signing a 3 year, $23 million contract. However, he has seemingly settled down, with very respectable, if not downright good, stats since May 5th. In 10 starts, he has posted a 3.18 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 1.245 WHIP, and a .239 BAA. His next start will be skipped to allow him a little more time to recover from the liner of his neck in his last start. Though it was a scary situation, this may actually help him by keeping his workload down a little. I honestly don't know if this recent performance is a sign of things to come or a lucky streak.

Tommy Hanson

After adrenaline got the best of him in his first start, Hanson settled down and has given Braves fan a glimpse of the talent that has had scouts everywhere raving. He has won every game since that first start while posting a .222 BAA and a 2.48 ERA. In his last two starts, he threw 11.1 scoreless innings against the juggernauts of the AL East, the Sox and the Yankees. He even walked only two hitters in his last start, down from the worrisome 5.3/9 he sports thus far. Besides the fastball clocked up to 95 mph and the nasty off speed stuff, I have been impressed with his poise and the confidence that he has showed against some formidable lineups. His performance has already given him a great shot at the Rookie of the Year. Every Braves fan with a pulse has to be excited to watch this kid for plenty years.

Kris Medlen

I am, admittedly, bitter about Medlen's move to the bullpen. After two rough appearances that saw Medlen give up 9 runs over 8.1 innings, he pitched beautifully in his last game: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K. His control was the major issue in those first two starts, but he found it in the last one, throwing 62.6% strikes. His minor league 2.0 BB/9 ratio indicates that the first two starts were probably the product of nerves more than anything. I understand that with the promotion of Hanson, there isn't any room in the rotation for Medlen, but moving him to the bullpen, where he made only 4 appearances in all of June, is not the solution for a young pitcher who has showed a lot of promise. He has to be sent down where he can continue to develop as a starter.

Jo-Jo Reyes

I've got to believe Braves fans have (thankfully) seen the last of Jo-Jo in Atlanta. In 5 starts this season, 19 runs for an ERA of 6.58. Some career numbers over three years with the Braves: 5-15, 6.09 ERA, 1.631 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9.

Tim Hudson

He hasn't pitched yet this year, but I included him because he is relevant to the discussion of the Braves's future. He'll be 33 next year, and he has a mutual option that stands to pay him $12 million next season. He should be back in August in time to make a few appearances.

So how will all of this play out this winter (or perhaps sooner)? Well, there are obviously a few guys that are here to stay. Jurrjens and Hanson should be front liners on this staff for a while. Lowe's contract and age make him all but untradeable. I think I'm OK with this. While I don't love the contract, he does give the Braves an ace with playoff experience and a great clubhouse guy. Plus, he will hopefully take the young guys under his wing. Kawakami is harder to gauge. If his recent performance is the pitcher the Braves signed, he may prove a steal at about $8 mil a year. However, if he is somewhere between how he started and how he has fared lately (which I think is about right), he will be difficult to move with that salary. Even if someone wanted him, I'm not sure it's worth giving up the international interest. Working under the assumption that the Braves will have Kawakami through the terms of his contract, that leaves four of the five starters' roles filled. With Hudson's return in August, the Braves have a big decision to make. Medlen is currently wasting away in the bullpen, while Vazquez has, as I said above, been outstanding this year. That's three pitchers for one spot. I have already made my opinion on this known, any one else have any thoughts?

In Frank Wren We Trust: Part 1

Frank Wren replaced the legendary John Schuerholz as GM of the Braves on October 11th, 2007. Because there has been so much talk lately about making a move to upgrade our offense, especially in the outfield, I decided to take a look back at Wren's moves since becoming GM (also, I have nothing better to do). I will be using the Rick James Titty Scale, with "4 Thumbs Up" being an exceptional move and "4 Thumbs Down" being atrocious. We'll go in chronological order, looking at trades, players claimed off waivers, and free agents signed (not players resigned).

10/25/07 - Chris Resop claimed off waivers from Angels

In 16 relief appearances in 2008, Resop went 0-1 with a 5.89 ERA. Not a great pickup, but no major damage.

1 Thumb Down

10/27/07 - Edgar Renteria and Cash to Detroit for Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez

Since leaving the Braves, Renteria's numbers have declined dramatically. In 2008 with the Tigers, he hit .270/.317.699, while thus far in 2009 with the Giants, he has hit .250/.333/.671.

On the other hand, Jurrjens has been superb in his 1 and 1/3 years with the Braves. Last year he went 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA over 188 IP. This year he has performed like an allstar, sporting a 2.59 ERA and a 5-2 record (which would be better if not for weak run support). Hernandez is also excelling in the minors. In 2007, he hit .293 and stole 54 bases in A ball. After a slight decline in 2008, he seems to have turned things around in AA Mississippi this year, hitting .316 with 9 steals. He is ranked as the 62nd best prospect in baseball by Baseball America. A simply brilliant move by Wren, getting a possible ace-to-be and an excellent prospect while making room for The Cuban Missile at short.

4 Thumbs Up

11/19/2007 - Signed Tom Glavine for 1 year, $8 million

Hard to argue with bringing back one of the faces of the franchise, but this move proved to be more sentimental than anything else. Glavine went 2-4 with a 5.54 ERA in 2008 before going down with an injury. On top of that, signing him gave the Mets a first round compensation pick.

2 Thumbs Down

12/4/2007 - Jose Ascanio to Cubs for Will Ohman and Omar Infante

Ascanio played awful for the Cubs in 2008 (7.94 ERA, 2.118 WHIP), but may have righted the ship this year, bringing his WHIP down to a respectable 1.286 with 10.3 K/9 and a 3.86 ERA.

Ohman did a great job in a Braves uniform, appearing in 83 games in 2008, going 4-1 with a 3.68 ERA. Super-utility man Omar Infante has proved to be a valuable pickup, playing any number of positions while wielding a solid bat. His 2008: .293/.338/.416. He was off to an even better start this year: .349/.389/.430. A solid deal by Wren.

2 Thumbs Up

1/14/08 - Joey Devine, Jamie Richmond and Cash to the A's for Mark Kotsay

A move made out of the need for a stopgap centerfielder before Schafer was (seemingly...) ready for the big leagues. After his memorable, grandslam-filled performance as a rookie, Devine proved to be an excellent reliever in 2008. He appeared in 42 games for the A's with great numbers: 6-1, 0.59 ERA, .832 WHIP (!), 9.7 K/9. Had a shot at the closer role this year before being forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. Richmond has a respectable ERA right around 3.80 in the minors.

Kotsay, in a typically injury-plagued year, played pretty average (.289/.340/.418). Hindsight being what it is, the Braves should have let Josh Anderson man centerfield and kept the two young arms, especially Devine.

The Milk's Gone Bad!

1/17/08 - Willy Aybar and Chase Fontaine to the Rays for Jeff Ridgway

Aybar worked out his issues enough to appear in 95 games for the Rays in 2008, hitting .253/.327/.410. SO far in '09, he's improved to .283/.376/.446. Fontaine has done nothing special in the minors, hitting .248 last year.

As for Ridgway, he had an ERA of 5.47 in 44 games last year for Richmond. The Braves released him on March 30th this year. Aybar clearly had some issues, and the Braves just needed to rid themselves of him, although it would have been nice to get something back in return.

1 Thumb Down

That's enough for today. Back with more tomorrow...

Babe Ruth Pitches/Hits Braves to Win

OK, so Jair Jurrjens may not be Babe Ruth, but the Braves' best pitcher of the year looked pretty good with the bat last night, hitting a 2 RBI double in the 2nd and drawing a walk (!) in the 3rd (the chick in that video looks like a younger, uglier version of Mindy Sterling, she of Austin Powers fame ). Ironic that in his worst pitching performance of the year, Jurrjens finally gets some run support to improve to 5-2. Over his first 10 games of the year, Jurrjens had an ERA of 2.07 and a .228 BAA, yet only had a record of 4-2, while last night, he had an ERA of 9.00, yet recorded his 5th victory of the season. Go figure. Escobar returned to the lineup and crushed a three run homer. The Braves send Vazquez to the mound this afternoon to face the Diamondbacks' Doug Davis (2-6, 3.77 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 1.5 HR/9, 6.5 K/9).