Look on the Bright Side

As it gets harder and harder for me to watch the Braves, between the physical and mental errors, I thought maybe we could take a look at the one bright spot for this team: the starting pitching. We'll look at the year each pitcher is having as well as his contract status, then finish up with what all this means moving forward.

Derek Lowe

The Braves's so-called ace, he of the 36 years of age and 4 year, $60 million contract, has pitched pretty well overall this year. Through his first 13 starts, he was 7-3 with a solid 3.44 ERA. After getting roughed up in two of his June starts, his ERA jumped to 4.53 and his record fell to 7-6. For the year, most of his relevant statistics are up, though that seems to be a product of those two awful outings. Lowe is one of the hardest workers on the team and as consistent as they come, so I'm not worried about him this year. That big contract, though, signed probably out of panic after this past winter's Smoltz fiasco, is going to come back on the Braves eventually.

Jair Jurrjens

To say the Jurrjens has continued to progress after last year's solid performance would be an understatement. Though the walks are a little high (3.2/9), he has pitched out of his mind this year, sporting a 2.93 ERA and .227 BAA. Given any sort of run support, he would be heading for his first all-star game appearance in a couple of weeks. He is arbirtration eligible until 2013, meaning that he should be pitching for the good guys for years to come.

Javier Vazquez

The Braves got more than they bargained for when the acquired Vazquez this past winter. He leads the league in strikeouts per nine (10.5) and has an ERA almost as outstanding as Jurrjens's (3.05). His walk ratio of 1.9/9 is the best on the staff by a long shot. He also leads the staff in innings pitched at 106.2 and WHIP at 1.059. Simply put, Vazquez has dominated this year and would also be headed to the all-star game with a little run support. At $11.5 million this year and next, his contract is pretty good considering the production.

Kenshin Kawakami

Kawakami certainly gave Braves fans cause for concern early this year after signing a 3 year, $23 million contract. However, he has seemingly settled down, with very respectable, if not downright good, stats since May 5th. In 10 starts, he has posted a 3.18 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 1.245 WHIP, and a .239 BAA. His next start will be skipped to allow him a little more time to recover from the liner of his neck in his last start. Though it was a scary situation, this may actually help him by keeping his workload down a little. I honestly don't know if this recent performance is a sign of things to come or a lucky streak.

Tommy Hanson

After adrenaline got the best of him in his first start, Hanson settled down and has given Braves fan a glimpse of the talent that has had scouts everywhere raving. He has won every game since that first start while posting a .222 BAA and a 2.48 ERA. In his last two starts, he threw 11.1 scoreless innings against the juggernauts of the AL East, the Sox and the Yankees. He even walked only two hitters in his last start, down from the worrisome 5.3/9 he sports thus far. Besides the fastball clocked up to 95 mph and the nasty off speed stuff, I have been impressed with his poise and the confidence that he has showed against some formidable lineups. His performance has already given him a great shot at the Rookie of the Year. Every Braves fan with a pulse has to be excited to watch this kid for plenty years.

Kris Medlen

I am, admittedly, bitter about Medlen's move to the bullpen. After two rough appearances that saw Medlen give up 9 runs over 8.1 innings, he pitched beautifully in his last game: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K. His control was the major issue in those first two starts, but he found it in the last one, throwing 62.6% strikes. His minor league 2.0 BB/9 ratio indicates that the first two starts were probably the product of nerves more than anything. I understand that with the promotion of Hanson, there isn't any room in the rotation for Medlen, but moving him to the bullpen, where he made only 4 appearances in all of June, is not the solution for a young pitcher who has showed a lot of promise. He has to be sent down where he can continue to develop as a starter.

Jo-Jo Reyes

I've got to believe Braves fans have (thankfully) seen the last of Jo-Jo in Atlanta. In 5 starts this season, 19 runs for an ERA of 6.58. Some career numbers over three years with the Braves: 5-15, 6.09 ERA, 1.631 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9.

Tim Hudson

He hasn't pitched yet this year, but I included him because he is relevant to the discussion of the Braves's future. He'll be 33 next year, and he has a mutual option that stands to pay him $12 million next season. He should be back in August in time to make a few appearances.

So how will all of this play out this winter (or perhaps sooner)? Well, there are obviously a few guys that are here to stay. Jurrjens and Hanson should be front liners on this staff for a while. Lowe's contract and age make him all but untradeable. I think I'm OK with this. While I don't love the contract, he does give the Braves an ace with playoff experience and a great clubhouse guy. Plus, he will hopefully take the young guys under his wing. Kawakami is harder to gauge. If his recent performance is the pitcher the Braves signed, he may prove a steal at about $8 mil a year. However, if he is somewhere between how he started and how he has fared lately (which I think is about right), he will be difficult to move with that salary. Even if someone wanted him, I'm not sure it's worth giving up the international interest. Working under the assumption that the Braves will have Kawakami through the terms of his contract, that leaves four of the five starters' roles filled. With Hudson's return in August, the Braves have a big decision to make. Medlen is currently wasting away in the bullpen, while Vazquez has, as I said above, been outstanding this year. That's three pitchers for one spot. I have already made my opinion on this known, any one else have any thoughts?

Why the Braves Should Trade Javy Vazquez

So he struck out 12 in 8 innings today with no walks. So what? Anyone could do that, right? Look, I know Vazquez has been great this year, leading the NL in strikeouts with 105, sporting a 3.31 ERA, a WHIP of 1.03, and a .225 BAA. Did I say great? I meant dominant. So why on Earth should the Braves try to deal him? His contract's not horrible ($11.5 mil this year and next), he is only 32 years old, and he's durable, averaging 215 IP a year since 2000. Everything you want in a starter.

Growing up a fan of the Braves in the 90's, I believe that starting pitching wins championships (even if they are only divisonal). Most of the rotation has looked great this year, with Lowe, Jurrjens, and Vazquez pitching phenomenal. After them, the Braves roll out Kawakami, who has begun to turn things around little, and Hanson, who showed plenty of promise in his first big league start. Braves starters rank 9th in the NL with an ERA of 4.45. While that may not be great, that stat is skewed somewhat by the 19 ER Jo-Jo Reyes gave up in 26 IP as a starter and Medlen's first two outings. With the recent callup of Tommy Hanson forcing Medlen into the long relief role, I think his talent is being wasted. Long relief is where pitchers go to die, not where you put a rookie who struck out 9 in 6 innings in his third start. He came on a few nights ago in extras and proved that it was no fluke.

Besides Medlen, the Braves also expect to get Tim Hudson back in August. He and the Braves have a mutual option for 2010 worth $12 mil, about the same as Vazquez's. Assuming he can return to his old form (more and more common with major arm surgery these days), the Braves will have enough quality pitchers for a mean 7 man rotation. Yet, despite all this pitching, the Braves are a game below .500 and 6 back in the East. How? Well, as we saw yesterday and today, the offense is often anemic, averaging 4.3 runs per game. The McLouth trade is bound to help, but no one after the fourth spot strikes fear into any pitcher's heart. The Braves need a bat, and dealing Vazquez could get them one.

Given this plethora of pitching, the Braves are in possession of an extremely valuable commodity in Vazquez. All those stats I listed in the beginning are precisely why Vazquez would make for good trade bait. If the team can get a bat for Vazquez, Medlen can move back into the rotation where he belongs, at least until Hudson is ready to go. If we don't deal a pitcher, someone is going to lose his place come August. Who will it be? Well, Lowe and Jurrjens have been lights out. Kawakami then? Not with that contract. Hanson? Not sending him down or to the bullpen. The Braves should shop him now and hope they can get another player like McLouth, a young guy, with a grea contract, who plays the game the right way. (Braw Hawpe? Please, Rockies. Pretty please?)

If you made it this far... your reward is Danny DeVito. Drunk. At 8 AM.

In Frank Wren We Trust: Part 2

Back for more Wren moves. Still using the RJTS.

3/26/08 - Tyler Yates to the Pirates for Todd Redmond

After posting a 5.18 ERA with the Braves in 2007, Yates posted similar ERAs of 4.66 in 2008 and 7.50 so far this year.

Redmond held his own in AA Mississippi in '08, going 13-5 with a 3.52 ERA. However, some other numbers did not bear this success out: 7.2 BB/9, 4.03 K/9, 8.9 WHIP. Every one of these numbers has been even worse this year, even the already high WHIP. All things said and done, Wren got something for a player we didn't want anyways, albeit something seemeingly not worth taking.

No Thumbs

3/29/08 - Claimed Ruben Gotay off waivers from the Mets

In 88 games in 2008, Gotay hit .235/.322/.343. I have nothing else to say.

1 Thumb Down

7/4/08 - Signed Julian Tavarez

Tavarez actually pitched pretty well after signing with the team in mid summer, appearing in relief in 36 games and posting an ERA of 3.89.

1 Thumb Up

7/29/08 - Mark Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman and Steve Marek

Most Braves fans probably know how Tex (nickname used solely for ease of typing, no affection here) performed in half a year in Anaheim, but in case you forgot, he simply hit .358/.449/.632 with 43 RBIs in 54 games.

After some well documented struggles after changing leagues, Kotchman seems to have found his grove this year. This is about what to expect out of him: hitting .281 with 16 2Bs, 24 RBIs, and 17 Ks to 14 BBs, all while playing gold glove caliber defense at first. Meanwhile, Marek has done nothing to impress in AA last year or this. This deal obviously doesn't look great because Tex is such a great player, both on offense and defense, but his stock was deeply declining last summer, as teams realized they would only be getting a rental. Since the Braves couldn't afford his $180 million contract, this is probably about as much as could be had for the rental. Additionally, Kothcman is still arbitration eligible, a factor that becomes more and more important to the Braves every year.

2 Thumbs Up

8/27/08 - Mark Kotsay to Red Sox for Luis Sumoza

Kotsay played nothing short of terrible for the Sox last fall, hitting .226 in 22 games. Sumoza, a 20 year old outfielder in Rome, isn't doing anything special, though he isn't approaching Schafer/Francoeur numbers either. Wren effectively rid himself of Kotsay and his back for a mediocre prospect.

1 Thumb Up

11/21/08 - Claimed Eric O'Flaherty off waivers from Seattle

An excellent pickup so far for the Braves. While being the only lefty in the bullpen, O'Flaherty has appeared in 24 games with an ERA of 3.12 and a 0.865 WHIP. Filled a big need for the team with some of the hitters in the East and filled it well.

2 Thumbs Up

12/4/08 - Tyler Flowers, Jonathan Gilmore, Brent Lillibridge, and Santos Rodriguez to the White Sox for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan

After a brilliant performance in the Arizona fall league (eclipsed only by Tommy Hanson's) that saw Flowers hit .385 and lead the league with 10 HRs, his value as a prospect sky-rocketed. Though I doubt he will stick to catching due to his big frame, there will hopefully not be an opening there in Atlanta for quite a few years. He was the gem of this deal from the White Sox perspective. Gilmore is hitting .214 thus far, while Lillibridge's stock has cooled the last few years as he has lost his bat. Rodriguez averaged 14 BB/9 in 2008, but a young kid all the same.

Javier Vazquez has pitched absolutely phenomal in 2009, although his 4-4 record does not show it. He is leading the league in strikeouts and is on pace for about 280 for the year. He's got a solid ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 1.15. You know he is going to eat innings up throughout the year, something that the Braves truly lacked last season and stands to help the bullpen immensely. Given some run support, he would be a shoo-in for an allstar spot (sound like any other Braves pitchers?). Logan has pitched decent in Gwinett this year, sporting a 3.13 ERA but a 1.300 WHIP. Clearly the Braves gave up some possibly elite prospects in this deal, but they got an inning eater who strikes guys out and doesn't get hurt. Although his price tag has sparked some rumors that the Braves may be shopping him for a much needed bat, I like this deal a lot since he is a sure thing, whereas none of the prospects are.

4 Thumbs Up

1/13/09 - Signed Kenshin Kawakami to a 3 year deal worth $23 million

Probably still too early to call this one. That price tag is awfully steep, and the "shoulder fatigue" coupled with his early season performance certainly set off alarms for Braves fans. However, over 5 starts in the month of May, Kawakami had an ERA of 3.03 (even though he pitched only 29.2 IP in that stretch). Plus, during that stretch, his WHIP was an unimpresive 1.416. I'm still a little nervous about this one.

2 Thumbs Down (so far)

1/13/09 - Signed Derek Lowe for 4 years, $60 million

Lowe has pitched like the ace he was advertised to be in the offseason when Wren took the plunge on a 4 year deal with a 36 year old pitcher. $15 mil is a lot for a pitcher that old, but the guy has been consistent. Since returning to the NL after a failed stint with Boston, he posted a 3.59 ERA while averaging 212 IP over 4 years. Among the league leaders this year in wins so far. Barring a major injury, I like this move despite the steep price tag.

2 Thumbs Up

2/20/09 - Signed Tom Glavine for 1 year, $1 million (incentives up to $3.5 million)

Wren took another shot on Glavine, again a sentimental move. Talked in Part 1 about his saeason in 2008. Thus far in the minors this year, Glavine, who starts tonight against the Augusta Green Jackets, has an ERA of 3.60 over 10 IP. With a plethora of major pitching talent waiting in the wings (Medlen, Hanson, maybe even Morton), could this move actually make the team worse? I love Tom Glavine, and his experience and knowledge about the game would be invaluable for this team, espcially the young pitchers I just mentioned. That being said, I would like to see him take on a consultant's role rather than a starter's. Of course, he could totally prove me wrong, as I hope he does.

1 Thumb Down

2/22/09 - Signed Garret Anderson for $2.5 million over 1 year

A move made to try to improve the abysmal outfield offense of 2008, Anderson hasn't quite lived up to the expectations. After being hurt early in the year, Anderson has improved his stats to .266/.294/.358. Given his consistency the last few years, those numbers are likely to go up. If they stay where they are, though, it is certainly not an upgrade over Matt Diaz, who is probably a little better defensively. On the other hand, if he can bring them up closer to his career averages, this is as good a way as any to spend $2.5 million.

1 Thumb Up (for now)

4/20/09 - Blaine Boyer to the Cardinals for Brian Barton

Boyer has posted a 5.06 ERA in 13 games so far in St. Louis. The 27 year old Barton is hitting just .241 in Gwinnett. Nothing special here.

No Thumbs

That conlcudes the exhaustive review of Frank Wren's tenure with the Braves. The total tally on the RJTS: 19 Thumbs Up vs. 12 Thumbs Down, with 9 positive moves vs. 7 negative ones. Given the budget constraints, the floundering hometown heroes, the phenoms that transform into dazed rookies, and some of the streakiest players in baseball, I think Wren has done pretty well overall. Feel free to leave me a comment if you disagree on a move or if I left something out.

Death, Taxes, and the Braves Wasting Dominant Pitching

Another excellent pitching performance by Vazquez last night (6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K) squandered by the Braves inept offense. Granted, this was a lineup featuring Garret Anderson hitting third and Martin Prado cleanup, but they were facing Doug Davis, he of the career 4.31 ERA. Francoeur went 1/5 with 3 K's. The bullpen pitched well overall, with Jeff Bennett finally yielding the winning run in the 11th. Schafer did steal a base, tying the Braves with Milwaukee for last in the NL with 11 (though the Brewers are second in HRs).

The good guys try to split the series this afternoon at 4:00 with Kris Medlen facing Max Scherzer, a young guy with seemingly nasty stuff (10.4 K/9 in 16 career games started). Hopefully Medlen can avoid the disastrous inning and pitch like he did for most of his last game. Throwing more strikes (only 56% thus far) would be nice.